Monday 16 July 2012

ZEV SPIRO TECHNICAL TAKE


Wednesday July 11th from 4pm-5pm
Money and Business show
presents

listen to live show aprx 1hr.
at the 50minute aprx.

http://www.radio-shalom.ca/mp3/Programs/1042/2012-07-11-mexico-drug-war.mp3

7PM TONIGHT

                                                     ZEV SPIRO TECHNICAL TAKE



Zev Spiro is the CEO and Chief Market Technician of Orips Research LLC, an independent technically driven equity research firm based in New York City. With over ten years of experience in the equity markets as a trader, analyst and strategist, Mr. Spiro has developed extensive expertise analyzing chart patterns, trends and relative strength of securities while incorporating volume characteristics and multiple technical indicators to forecast future price movements. Mr. Spiro began his financial career in sales at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.
Mr. Spiro is a Chartered Market Technician and a member of the Market Technicians Association. In addition, he has achieved recognition in the financial community as a contributor of research to various financial publications. He graduated from the Yeshiva University Sy Syms School of Business with a Bachelor of Science in Finance.

show ;


I plan on briefly discussing the state of the equity markets by:
- breaking down positive and negative trends in different sectors and indexes.
- Discuss the current position of the S&P 500 Index and how signals from the Russell 2000 Index and Treasury Bond Markets may raise conviction for a directional trend in the S&P.
Time pending, I will discuss stock specific ideas.
Before acting on any information that is discussed in the next 10 minutes, please consult with a financial advisor because the following investment ideas and risks associated may not be suitable for your investment objectives or portfolio

Breakdown the market in sectors and indices:

The S&P remains in a long term bullish trend that began in 2009, which is defined by bullish support lines that are drawn, connecting lows since 2009. . Long term uptrends in many indexes and sectors remain intact, including, S&P 500 (SPX), NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ), NASDAQ 100 (NDX), Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY),  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV), Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP), and Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) as current levels in these sectors and indexes are above long term support in both the price and weekly RSI.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) and Guggenheim BRIC ETF (EEB) are in negative trends as bearish triggers occurred in MAY, which have resulted, and may continue, in significantly lower prices in the metals and mining industry and ADR’s and GDR’s of companies from Brazil, Russia, India and China. Now, Outlook is extremely cautious in MSCI All Country World Index, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM).

Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB), Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and in many global indices in Europe and Asia, which have potential bearish patterns that have not triggered but are similar to those that have triggered in XME and EEB.

If these potential bearish patterns trigger, they would likely negatively impact the healthy trends of the sectors and indexes mentioned before, including the S&P and NASDAQ.


Current position of the S&P 500 Index and how signals from the Russell 2000 Index and Treasury Bond


Markets may raise conviction for a directional trend in the S&P:
Multiple minor support and resistance levels in the S&P 500 lie between 1266.74 and 1395, creating congestion. No clear pattern is present in SPX to indicate a directional move beyond the minor trend. Attention should be focused on other indexes and assets to determine broad market direction until SPX presents high conviction signals.

On June 29th, a breakout in the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) was signaled, as a breakaway gap occurred on high volume above significant resistance in the 785/788 area. This breakout increased bullish conviction for the minor trend and is expected to support prices on a pull back. We actually tested that level today. If prices and hold the 785 /788 support area turn up, it will likely be a bullish signal for equities in general. A confirmed break below support would signal a failed breakout and could result in lower prices, especially if prices break below the low end of the breakaway gap at 775.90.

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT), representing mid to long term treasury bond prices, is important to monitor as the technical landscape offers potentially higher conviction signals than equities and will likely impact equities based on the negative correlation between treasuries and equities.
A bullish breakout in TLT occurred in May, as prices moved above the $122.50 and $124 resistance levels. In June, the $124 area was tested and held. Prices consolidated over the past month into a sideways base that ranged between the $124 and $127.50 areas. A confirmed break below the $122.50/$124 support area would be significant and could signal higher equity prices beyond the minor trend. However, this past Monday, TLT moved above the $127.50 resistance area which signaled higher bond prices that has resulted in selling of equities over the past few days and may continue. A move in TLT above the June 1st high of $130.38 would further increase bullish conviction for bond prices.

In summary, composure in SPX lacks conviction beyond the minor trend. RUT and TLT should be monitored as a confirmed break in RUT below785, especially below 775.90 and a move above $130.38 in TLT could be bearish for the broad equity markets. On the other hand, bullish composure in US equities for the intermediate trend and possibly longer will increase significantly if buyers defend the recent breakout in RUT and if TLT breaks important support in the $122.50/$124 areas.


stock ideas :
TWTC - A long term bullish pattern formed in TW Telecom Inc. (TWTC) over the last 5.5 years. In May, the pattern triggered as prices moved above the neckline at $23, on high volume, adding confidence to the bullish signal. Target: $41.50 is the minimum expected price objective obtained by measuring the height of the pattern and expanding higher from the trigger by the same distance.
In June, prices moved above the 2007 high of $24, increasing bullish conviction. Prices are slightly overextended at current levels and may or may not pull back, but may present an excellent entry opportunity on a pull back toward the $24 to $24.70 area, which was previously resistance and is now expected to reverse roles and become support. Protective sell stops may be set to trigger on a confirmed break below the 22.70/23 area

WTR – Aqua America Inc. (WTR), on june 5th, a long term bullish pattern triggered signaling higher prices with an expected price objective of $33. This name is also slightly overbought in the short term but could present an excellent buy entry on a pull back to the $25 area. Protective sell stops may be set to trigger on a confirmed break below the $23.50 area.



Disclaimer: Orips disclaims all warranties for the Materials, either express or implied, statutory or otherwise including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. All Materials provided by Orips are provided for informational purposes only. Under no circumstances shall the Materials be considered as advice relating to any investment decision or as an offer to purchase or sell any security, or as a solicitation or recommendation for the purchase, sale or offer to purchase or sell any security. Without limiting the foregoing, Orips (i) does not make any guarantee that the information presented in the Materials is accurate, complete, timely or contains correct sequencing of information; (ii) does not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from its use or that the Materials will meet any requirements; (iii) makes no warranty that access to the Materials will be uninterrupted, timely, secure or error-free and (iv) shall not incur any liabilities for claims, losses or damages arising from any inaccuracy, error, delay or omission in the Materials, the use of the Materials or any actions taken or not taken in reliance on the information presented in the Materials. Without limiting the foregoing, in no event shall Orips be liable for any consequential, special, incidental, indirect or punitive damages, including but not limited to loss of profits whether in contract, tort or otherwise.

Zev Spiro, CMT
CEO and Chief Market Technician
Orips Research LLC
160 Pearl Street, Fifth Floor
New York, NY 10005

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