Tuesday 7 February 2012

Eight Great Lies and Misconceptions about China

Tom Galey
Radio Shalom CJRS1650AM ,
Money and Business Show /Samuel Ezerzer
Wednesday the February the 8th live at 4pm-5pm
http://www.radio-shalom.ca/EN/showemission.php?ID=1042

 listen to the show
http://www.radio-shalom.ca/EN/player.php?URI=/../mp3/Programs/1042/1431.mp3





 My mother still thinks that people in China still ride around on bicycles wearing those green army suits and green hats with the red star in the middle. While there are still a lot of bicycles, especially in Beijing and Shanghai – now they wear there silk suites to work and not many people are wearing those green outfits anymore.
China’s growth curve has gone through the roof in recent years and for the past 15-20 years China has typically averaged 10% GDP growth, and it has maintained that growth even as a multi-trillion dollar economy . The 10% growth in an economy already worth trillions is an astounding achievement, but it can also lead to severe economic troubles, such as an inflated house prices and soaring food prices. Well from the looks of it , China has incurred both of these troubles , a real estate buble and food prices that are out of control . As a growing middle class emerges, demand for beef has far outstripped supply growth, and beef is typically making record highs every month. Additionally, the usage of real estate as collateral for local government loans, amongst other factors, has led to soaring housing prices.
Does China have a significant housing bubble on its handsbecause growth in the real estate sector is important in all modern economies. Construction of homes and commercial office space is a huge driver for demand in the steel, cement, and construction sectors, and is an important part of demand in the commodities market. Construction requires the use of iron (in steel), copper, and fuel. The local chinese government depends solely on rising land and real estate prices, since almost all of their collateral is in their properties. The famously investment driven Chinese also depend heavily on rising home prices to attain better rates of return than are possible in other markets.A slowdown in the real estate market has appeared recently; prices in nine major Chinese cities fell 4.9% in April from a year earlier. Real estate prices in major cities had been on an absolute tear for the past several years, as a growing Chinese middle class desires to migrate from the countryside into major cities.


And in the United States and Europe, the manufacturing industry was created due to technology innovation. For example, railways came into existence because of the invention of the steam engine and automobiles were created because of technology breakthroughs in automobile engines. In China, the manufacturing industry is being created in response to global demand. Chinese manufacturers take orders from Western companies that have designed products for their home markets.

They have no involvement with product development, innovation, market research, and even packaging. Chinese manufacturers have no experience in bringing their own products to overseas markets.While the rest of the world fears China’s manufacturing power, China is trying to move away from its "sweatshop" manufacturing and become a service-oriented economy. However, China may find itself locked into place, at least for now, due to the hundreds of millions of rural migrants that need jobs. Perhaps the most important thing to note is that the Chinese governemnt is desperate to keep GDP growing at a pace above at least 7% for the next several years.

Today live from colorado is Tom Galey professor of business and economics an expert in china and founder of the firm three china to talk about the Eight Great Lies and Misconceptions about China,

My name is Samuel Ezerzer, your host to the Money & Business show on Radio Shalom, CJRS 1650 AM. Thank you for tuning in live on the Money & Business show, with our studio and headquarters in Montreal, the financial capital and the home to the greatest hockey team, the Montreal Canadians. We have another great show for you today and as always, you can call if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms on today's topic. Please call us direct at 514 738 4100 ext 200 or email me at moneyandbusinessshow@gmail.com if you have any inquiries. You can also visit our website at www.radio-shalom.ca – all our shows are archived there.I work as Financial Consultant for T.E MIRADOR or TE WEALTH. TE MIRADOR has been providing Corporate Executives , CEO 'S , families ,employers and employee with independent wealth management and Financial education services since 1972. You can visit our website for my contact information at www.temirador.com, 

 
 
 
Bio Tom Galey
Tom Galey has been working with Asia in product development for over 25 years. He has made between 200 and 300 new products in Greater China, and has exported and sourced thousands more. Known as The Import Pro ™ Tom teaches and consults on a wide range of topics in international trade with Asia and the West. He started his career early in the Telescope industry developing scientific equipment for a Ball Aerospace engineer. In the 80's he moved to Taipei to study Mandarin Chinese and develop new products. He ran the buying office for a large Canadian chain store, producing hundreds of goods manufactured throughout Asia.
In the 1990's, Mr. Galey worked in the US territory of Guam with Esso Eastern Singapore, Exxon as a marketing executive. He later joined Budweiser Micronesia and managed the overseas production of Budweiser branded promotional products. As director of Marketing in the Pacific Rim, he pioneered factory-direct Asian purchasing for overseas divisions. Anheuser-Busch used these newly developed policies and changed corporate purchasing procedures.
The consulting firm of "Three Chinas" was established in 2005 to assist in the development of new and complex products in Asia. Further development included guided trips to China and Asia to learn hands-on skills in product development in Asia. He instructs seminars on doing business with China and the Pacific Rim.
Now a professor of business and economics in Colorado, Tom continues to consult on market entry into Greater China as well as advisor to trade ventures with Asia.
Tom graduated from the University of Colorado with a degree in Economics and has an MBA with an emphasis in Global Management from the University of Phoenix. He remains fluent in Mandarin Chinese and speaks enough Taiwanese go get into trouble! 

"Eight Great Lies and Misconceptions about China."

 
1. Q: Some of the presidential candidates have said that the US has suffered losses from economic and trade cooperation with China, and others claim that high unemployment in the US is caused by an undervalued yuan?Why is everyone down on China these days ?what are they doing that is so wrong ...? blaming China will not help the US solve its problemsA: First reason is politics, both Dems and Repubs will gain votes by criticizing China... (there are many topics which can be referenced... which is the basis of the rest of the misconceptions)(A Morgan Stanley report showed that 4 to 8 million jobs in the US are closely tied to Sino-US trade, and in the past 10 years US consumers have saved at least $600 billion by buying commodities made in China. According to a report released in November by the US-China Business Council, 88 percent of US companies have made more or equal profits in China compared with those made in other countries. )
http://english.people.com.cn/90883/7711407.html
 

2. Q; Capital and technology from the US have played a positive role in China's reform and opening up , are the The two economies so closely interconnected that neither one can leave the other?The US is the biggest source of China's foreign investment. Statistics show that by the end of November, the US had more than 60,000 investment projects in China with an input totaling $67.4 billion.

3. Republican candidate Mitt Romney has pledged to designate China as a currency manipulator and pursue litigation against its "unfair trade practices" will Such practices will "only push the two countries to a 'trade war', which harms China but brings no profit to the US either"? 
 
2. Q: From what I understand The Chinese market is actually two distinct markets for every product, there is a ‘foreign/local’ market, characterized by higher technology and higher price, and a second purely ‘local’ market, which is characterized by lower technology and lower price. All I hear is how bad the products are manufactured from china. Can I make an assumption that China manufacturing has made huge progress in that last few years?(Many luxury cars are made here. And I see some successful Chinese brands getting distributed in high-end department stores and boutiques, at the price point of most imported products.)A: You get what you pay for... China can produce high, medium, or low quality. What is in demand? ... low price. Americans demand low price, nothing else... if the quality suffers, the price is still low... that's ok.
 
 
 
4. Q: China accounts for the third largest number where child labour is concerned , child labour in China has been there for centuries. This is so despite that there have been strict official regulations that ban employment of minors. And according to the laws of China, a minor is an individual below the age of sixteen-years do they still have children working 18 hour days under horrible conditions? and As China's Economy Grows, So does China's Child Labour Problem?A: There are more than enough people (adults) to fill the production jobs, in fact the migrant worker population (of 300 million = to the entire US population!) has improved the overall quality of life by many times. I was there in the '80s and 90s, life was rough... farmers made $50 US per month. So the 300 million farmers moved to the factory and more than doubled their salary. Would you like a 2X in your salary? Does anyone want to double their salary? Sounds ok to me.
 
There are juvenile labourers employed in the workshops and factories. According to a recent People's Daily Report the use of children is maximum in the following industries:
Toy manufacturing
Production
Textiles
Construction
Food production
Light mechanical work
Child labour in China is hardly a new phenomenon. For years, despite official regulations banning the employment of minors (defined by Chinese law as those under sixteen years of age), teenagers and even pre-adolescents from poorer regions of China have been drawn to the rapidly developing southern and coastal areas looking for work. For this army of juvenile labourers, employment is readily available in the workshops and factories (and to a lesser extent related industries, such as food service) that are at the heart of China's economic boom. A recent People's Daily Report cites an investigation undertaken by the government agency in charge of monitoring labour conditions in Shandong province's Jinan City. According to the report, the use of juvenile labour is most prevalent in the following industries: Toy production, textiles, construction, food production, and light mechanical work. Concerning the latter, the report concludes that child labour is particularly in demand because children have smaller hands and eyesight undamaged by years of labour, making them more desirable than adults for certain kinds of work.
More often than not, parents of juvenile workers have little choice but to send their children off to work; as school fees increase beyond the means of most rural families, educational opportunities for rural children grow increasingly dim. Further, the earnings of children, however meager, represent a substantial portion of much-needed income to poor families. Parents of juvenile labourers rarely have a clear idea of the adverse working conditions and physical risks inherent in industrial work. Moreover, the juvenile workers learn themselves are often reluctant to complain, knowing well the critical nature of their financial contributions to the family.
 
 
5. Q: Little by little China is forming military links in Africa and in the Indian Ocean in order, experts say, to protect Beijing's economic interests in the region ,China has beefed up their military presence, they have a new aircraft carrier, they are venturing into space... are they going to take over over thee world or protecting there economic interests in the region? A: What is the motivation to "take over"? You have to ask an obvious question: WHY? Why would they want to piss off the USA? and ... Can they take over? ... most definitely NOT... they are about a trillion bucks short of that for one.

 
In the past three weeks Beijing has committed to supporting Ugandan forces operating in Somalia and to helping the Seychelles fight piracy. "It is very clear that the Chinese leaders recognize that military force will play a bigger role to safeguard China's overseas interests," Jonathan Holslag, of the Brussels Institute of Chinese Contemporary Studies told AFP. "There is a willingness, and even a consensus, in China, that this process will take place." The Indian Ocean is strategic, Holslag said, noting that 85 percent of China's oil imports and 60 percent of its exports are routed via the Gulf of Aden. Beijing does not so far have any military base in the region: its military presence consists of three vessels in the Gulf of Aden to fight Somali pirates. But the deployment of those ships in 2009, the first of its kind for the Chinese navy, was already highly symbolic. For the moment, cooperation between China and the islands of the Indian Ocean is still limited to "low profile military-to-military exchanges, but it is getting broader and more structured," Holslag told AFP. "The mere fact that China has a multi-year naval presence in the Gulf of Aden has great symbolic and diplomatic significance," said Frans-Paul van der Putten, senior research fellow at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael.  

6. Q: China is able to produce goods that Americans want at a low cost. Despite the loss in jobs, this is unlikely to change. That's because most people would rather pay as little as possible for computers, electronics and clothing -- even if it means other Americans lose their jobs. the U.S.trade deficit with china was $272 billion . Why Is There a U.S. Trade Deficit with China? Do The Americans have to sell more products to balance its trade deficit?A: Not really, first we have already made HUGE increases in how much product China buys from the US now... to shut that down, it could ruin the US economy. If we limit China imports, they limit US imports (everyone does, the US taught everyone how to do that one).
 
The U.S. has a trade deficit with China despite the fact that its exports to that country were the highest in history. In 2011, the U.S. exported $94 billion in goods, an all-time record. (Exports in 2010 were only $92 billion.) However, imports from China also set a record -- $367 billion, more than the $364 billion imported in 2010. The U.S. imports consumer electronics, clothing and machinery from China. A lot of the imports are from U.S. based companies that send raw materials to China for cheap assembly. When they are shipped back to the U.S., they are called imports even though they are profiting American-owned companies. (Source: U.S. Census,
U.S. Trade in Good With China) 
OK how about we increase the tariff's, increase import taxes?A: That's not going to help, it will make product more expensive. If the desire is to hurt the average consumer, then slap higher tariffs on China goods. What will happen with certainty, is the retailer or seller will add that price onto the price the consumer pays. Oh yeah, anyone selling to China will have a tax added to their US product... that will limit sales and profitability for the N. American firm.
 
7. Q;Most economists agree that China's competitive pricing is a result of two factors so How does China keep prices so low?







8.Q: It’s one of those things we’re continually told, isn’t it, that all the good, well paid, manufacturing jobs have been packed up and shipped off to China?A: True but our corporations made fantastic profits in doing so. Laws of capitalism suggests that the US benefited from this, and they did. Was it China's fault? No, it was WalMart's fault, it was their conscious and deliberate decision to make the move, "... in order to strengthen US industry" That is the Capitalist argument.
 
9: Q American manufacturing output continues to rise. Yes, really, even as manufacturing employment falls, manufacturing output is still going upin the united states (ISM Manufacturing Composite Index) , I have data showing China lost 16 million manufacturing jobs, a decline of 15 percent, between 1995 and 2002, according to a study of manufacturing jobs in the 20 largest economies by Joe Carson, director of economic research at Alliance Capital Management. In that same time, U.S. factory employment shrank by 2 million, or 11 percent.Yes, that really is correct, China is losing manufacturing jobs. And at a rate faster than the US is. a.So where are they all going? Brazil maybe? Indonesia?
b.While jobs in manufacturing are certainly declining, is America producing more than it ever has. In other words, your producing more goods , using fewer people?
 
a.So where are they all going? Brazil maybe? Indonesia?
b.While jobs in manufacturing are certainly declining, is America producing more than it ever has. In other words, your producing more goods , using fewer people?
American manufacturing output continues to rise. Yes, really, even as manufacturing employment falls, manufacturing output is still going upin the united states (ISM Manufacturing Composite Index) , I have data showing China lost 16 million manufacturing jobs, a decline of 15 percent, between 1995 and 2002, according to a study of manufacturing jobs in the 20 largest economies by Joe Carson, director of economic research at Alliance Capital Management. In that same time, U.S. factory employment shrank by 2 million, or 11 percent.Yes, that really is correct, China is losing manufacturing jobs. And at a rate faster than U.S. theis.http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/02/03/that-giant-sucking-sound-of-manufacturing-jobs-going-to-china/
No, what’s actually happening is that the jobs are disappearing altogether, entirely going up in smoke: It seems that China’s advantage as a low-cost producer hasn’t halted the insatiable drive worldwide to replace even dirt- cheap labor with productivity-enhancing equipment.This really is happening all over the world:Some 22 million manufacturing jobs were lost globally between 1995 and 2002 as industrial output soared 30 percent, Carson says. It seems that devilish productivity is wreaking havoc with jobs both at home and abroad.




 10
A: We need China as much as China needs North America. We fire them (mr Trump) and they fire us! Do we want that? You can argue all day long about who is more important to whom... irrelevant argument I say because we both need each other.
 
11. Q; With increased pressure from the West and the World Trade Organization, China has instituted a number of reforms to its patent system. Much like the United States Patent and Trademark Office, but The Chinese continue to knock off our branded product, why does this keep going? Is it possible to protect your Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) when doing business in China?


; Q: So we just fire them as Donald Trump would say right?
A: Because we demand it... American's buy it all, and don't seem to try to stop it on the streets of New York... Fake Rolex watches are for sale right now in Montreal, you can go buy one in five minutes of arrival. What's wrong with this picture? It's as if it is legal... I wonder, is it? ... if you can buy a fake Gucci bag ... well, everywhere, is it legal? The people buying support the industry, not the makers... if there were no buyers, who would be so stupid to make it... if it's hardly illegal, wouldn't everyone want in!?!
 
 
12. China is more dependent on international commerce than almost any other nation, so trade friction -- or even declining global demand -- will hurt it more than others. Will China will not be able to export its way to prosperity like it did during the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. The country real estate, for instance, could it be the biggest victim of the eurozone crisis.? Real estate
Just like the US, speculation on real estate in China is facing a bursting bubble... prices are sky high and people may be losing money. What further complicates things is that the government initially, in the Maoist days of communism, owned all the land... so they dole it out as required. It's not a perfectly competitive market because of this government involvement. My advice to Americans interested in this area is to ... be Chinese...
 
13.why do the chines love buying gold ?Gold,
Historically, the Chinese have valued gold quite highly. It means more than money in Chinese culture, it is a symbol of wealth of course but of power and authority... Gold is owned by kings in the past, and now individual citizens can feel like royalty by owning gold. Also, Chinese save differently from North American and European cultures. We in the West trust banks to hold our savings... Chinese and developing Asian cultures have experienced bank failure and have lost money... That being said, maybe the West can learn from some prudent savings.
China has a great deal of gold, if we change currency standards this could play in... The Chinese Yuan is moving towards an internationally traded currency, look for changes in Gold.
(Note: we can talk about human rights, but that's like an entire hour of discussion, and quite controversial. It's a bit beyond business at this point, and i venture into politics enough... hopefully political business issues.)
The answer, the solution might be to accept the situation we have allowed the economy to go... to accept the fact that China is a good partner ... and they are here to stay. They are not the evil void we are seeking. Some think we need an enemy, that's a stupid argument coming from fear and a lack of knowledge.




 
notes
Posted: Thursday, March 30, 2006

by Tom Galey
3 Chinas
Is it possible to protect your Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) when doing business in China? A lot of people ask me this, and it is a great question and a very interesting topic. Things have changed dramatically in just the past few years in this area, most especially in China.
What launched this change has to do with China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. Just a few years ago the US and WTO watchmen applied enough pressure on the Chinese government to get serious about cleaning up copyright violations. In order for China to join the WTO club they had to show a serious commitment to curbing violations in intellectual property rights.

The result was new laws and a new legal perspective in China. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) recently released statistics indicating that seizures are down 33% from last year. Apparel topped the list of infringing products followed by handbags. The list continues cigarettes, footwear and consumer electronics. Computer hardware was down to only a 5% share of IPR-related seizures.

Counterfeiting is big business and most brands do not suffer significant damage. Copycats are knocking off branded items, these brands are big names. Big brands have the attorneys on the ground in Asia keeping an eye out for their brands. Companies that take a proactive role usually don’t have a problem.

Violators can expect to do jail time for breaking the law. Criminals who profit from copying are now realizing that the laws are for real. Fines for violators are over $60,000 USD.

So if you have a product that is really unique and you don’t want it copied, apply for a patent. The right kind of patent will protect you on a global scale. Under the Madrid System, a US application for patent has protection globally. If your item is so unique you should file a patent in China for further protection. The thrust of China’s new laws is that they work both ways, the laws are written in harmony for protection on both sides.

Today overseas factories are not taking any chances. Besides, there is plenty of business to go around. They are busy making money.
Political as well as commerce opportunities have brought the two nations together in a partnership like nowhere other time in history. Success comes down to working with trusted partners with years of experience in dealing with these issues.



Tom Galey,

China Sourcing Consultant

Boulder, Colorado



http://www.3Chinas.com
 
People often compare China’s urbanization to Western industrialization in the 19th century. In both cases, a large population moved from the country to the city. Society advanced from agricultural to industrial via manufacturing on a massive scale.
 
 
------------------------------------------------------------
Myth of China’s Manufacturing Prowess
 

However, there is a key misconception about China’s manufacturing prowess.
In the United States and Europe, the manufacturing industry was created due to technology innovation. For example, railways came into existence because of the invention of the steam engine and automobiles were created because of technology breakthroughs in automobile engines.
In China, the manufacturing industry is being created in response to global demand. Chinese manufacturers take orders from Western companies that have designed products for their home markets. They have no involvement with product development, innovation, market research, and even packaging. Chinese manufacturers have no experience in bringing their own products to overseas markets.
Unlike the manufacturing industry in the West that gave birth to a middle class of both white-collar and blue-collar workers, manufacturers in China mostly absorb surplus labor from rural areas with few skills. Those rural migrant workers live in dormitories, earn about $100 to $200 a month, and hardly fit into the category of the middle class. (To be clear, there is a burgeoning middle class in China. Most of them are in urban private businesses, state-owned enterprises, and multinationals).
James Fallows, national correspondent for the Atlantic, visited many factories in China. He saw people working on the assembly lines and was convinced those tasks would only be performed by machines in the United States.
Yes, China is making efforts to drive its economy up the value chain. The 11th Five-year Plan (2006 – 2010) called for "scientific development." A key initiative is an increase in the R&D-to-GDP ratio from about 1.3 percent in 2005 to 2.5 percent by 2020. However, how much of the funding is actually used for research and development and how well the research is being transferred into manufacturing are both highly questionable.
Given the unpredictability of the regulatory environment, many Chinese manufacturers tend to focus on short term gain. They compete on volume and price, and only enjoy wafer-thin profit margins. This has kept Chinese manufacturers from investing in research and development or training employees.
Recently, some Chinese manufacturers experienced a shortage of low-waged workers. On the other hand,
While the rest of the world fears China’s manufacturing power, China is trying to move away from its "sweatshop" manufacturing and become a service-oriented economy. However, China may find itself locked into place, at least for now, due to the hundreds of millions of rural migrants that need jobs.
Contrary to the conventional view, manufacturing in the U. S. has been growing in the past two decades despite the decline in manufacturing jobs. The latest
In addition, most jobs the United States lost to China are low-skilled jobs. By outsourcing those low-skilled jobs to China, Americans have actually become more competitive in high-skilled jobs such as management, innovation, and marketing. The low-skilled jobs also serve China well as Chinese rural migrants have opportunities to move up in life and gain some skills.








                                          http://www.tewealth.com/experts/samuel-ezerzer-b-sc/
                                                                  samuel ezerzer


 
 

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